New York Mets (@1.65) vs Cincinnati Reds (@2.2)
21-09-2019

Our Prediction:

New York Mets will win

New York Mets – Cincinnati Reds Match Prediction | 21-09-2019 19:10

Roark has pitched to a 3.24 ERA through his first five starts of the year. Hes struck out 24 and allowed just two home runs, but hes issued 11 free passes including three over five innings his last time out. His BABIP is an uncharacteristically high .370, but hes stranding 81.6 percent of baserunners. He hasnt gone more than 5 1/3 innings in a single start this year as his pitch counts have been high.

The Mets also offer the better offense and with the Reds just 4-10 on the road, New York is worth the -1.5 gamble. In searching for value, the best play tonight is the Mets runline (-1.5, +130). Meanwhile, Roark owns healthy walk (7.0%) and hard-contact (30.4%) rates but his SIERA is up to 4.43 and unlike Wheeler, hes not striking out many hitters (19.5%). Theres no question they have the edge in the pitching matchup, as Wheeler is missing bats at a 10.5% rate and currently owns an elite 25.0% contact rate.

I understand New York being favored on the road, because the Mets have been playing better baseball over a longer stretch and have their ace on the mound in DeGrom. The matchup screams pitchers duel, and I wouldnt be surprised to see a 2-1 or 3-2 type game here. However, Castillo is no slouch on the other side and with the way that Cincinnatis playing lately, I think the Reds are more than capable of taking this one. Instead, Im going to side with the under.

The Mets have a 79-73 overall record this season. He's allowed 7 hits per 9 innings and he has a FIP of 2.79. They have a team WHIP of 1.32 and their FIP as a unit is 4.11. He has 239 strikeouts over his 190 innings pitched and he's given up 148 hits. New York as a pitching staff has walked 475 batters and struck out 1,415. They have walked 3.1 men per 9 innings while striking out 9.3 per 9. Starting pitcher Jacob deGrom has a 9-8 record with an earned run average of 2.61 and a WHIP of 1.01 this season. As a team, New York allows 8.7 hits per nine innings while striking out 9.3 batters per nine innings. Teams are hitting .256 against the bullpen and they've struck out 519 hitters and walked 215 batters. They are 12th in the league in team earned run average at 4.33. They have allowed 190 home runs this season, ranking them 25th in the league. The Mets pitchers collectively have given up 1,325 base hits and 658 earned runs. The bullpen has an earned run average of 5.13 and they have given up 490 base hits on the year.

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Davis added a base hit to finish off New Yorks offense as a team in the win. Seth Lugo and Michael Conforto each had an RBI as well while Robinson Cano added a double. The New York Mets will look to finish strong after winning their series with the Rockies to start the week, taking Wednesdays rubber match by a final score of 7-4. Noah Syndergaard gave up four runs on ten hits while striking out six over 5.2 innings of work. Jacob DeGrom will start game one and is 9-8 with a 2.61 ERA and 239 strikeouts this season. In his career, DeGrom is 2-1 with a 1.74 ERA and 40 strikeouts against Cincinnati. Pete Alonso had a home run and two RBIs while Jeff McNeil had a solo home run and Brandon Nimmo went 3 for 5 with an RBI. J.D. Seth Lugo picked up the win in relief to improve to 7-4 on the year.

Jose Peraza and Eugenio Suarez contributed RBI singles, while Derek Dietrich smashed in a run with a sacrifice fly. Tyler Mahle declined to 0-3 on the season by giving up five runs and seven hits in five plus innings. The game broke a short two-game winning streak for the Reds. Cincinnati Reds will be on the road to open a four-game series against New York Mets on Monday. On Saturday, Cincinnati was defeated by Saint Louis Cardinals with a final score of 6-3.

Cincinnati is 4-1 in Castillos last 5 starts and 5-2 in their last 7 games overall while the under is 5-1 in their last 6 games overall. New York is 0-6 in DeGroms last 6 starts against the NL Central and 7-3 in their last 10 games overall while the under is 5-1 in DeGroms last 6 starts overall. New York is 23-8 in the last 31 meetings between these two teams and 13-5 in the last 18 meetings between these two teams in Cincinnati.

His goal is to break down the complicated trends and numbers into a language that's accessible even if you're not a seasoned sports bettor, providing comprehensive insight that can apply to just about everyone. Andrew has been with Sports Chat Place since 2012, contributing to football, baseball and basketball across the fantasy,college and professional ranks.

Cincinnati Reds at New York Mets: By the Numbers

The leader in home runs with seven in Jesse Winker and Yaseil Puig is the leader in RBIs with 15. Cincinnati Reds are averaging .208 at the plate and opposing hitters are holding a batting average of .235. The Reds are led by Eugenio Suarez in batting with an average of .241 along with 21 hits. Tanner Roark will be sent to the mound on Monday as the starting pitcher, the right-hander is 1-1 this season with an ERA of 3.24, 24 Ks and 11 BBs.

Chris has been a sports fan from when he was old enough to pick up a basketball and was a standout offensive lineman throughout high school and college. Chris has been writing for Sports Chat Place since 2016 and covers a wide array of sports from college and pro football, college basketball, hockey and baseball. Chris uses that same instinct, determination and drive to analyze trends and statistics to find and producewinners on a consistent basis.